SpaceX's Unusual Valuation Strategy: Why Wall Street Is Comparing Rockets to AI Companies

SpaceX is preparing for one of history's largest initial public offerings by positioning itself as something entirely new: a hybrid aerospace-and-artificial-intelligence conglomerate that defies traditional valuation methods. The company is hosting three days of closed-door analyst meetings this week at its Texas launch facility and Tennessee data center, with executives targeting a late June trading debut and aiming to raise $75 billion in what would be the world's biggest-ever IPO .

The unconventional pitch reflects a fundamental challenge: after Elon Musk merged xAI with SpaceX in February, the company became something Wall Street has never quite seen before. Rather than comparing SpaceX to legacy aerospace and telecom giants like Boeing and AT&T, at least one large institutional investor has been using unusual benchmarks to explain the math, according to reporting on the valuation discussions .

Why Is SpaceX Being Compared to AI Companies Instead of Aerospace Firms?

The valuation framework tells a revealing story about how Musk is positioning SpaceX's future. Instead of traditional aerospace comparisons, institutional investors have been benchmarking SpaceX against Palantir Technologies and artificial intelligence infrastructure companies like GE Vernova and Vertiv . This shift suggests that SpaceX's value proposition now hinges on its ability to serve as a foundational infrastructure platform for AI, not just as a rocket and satellite company.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has roughly two months to convince Wall Street's top analysts and ultimately investors that the company is worth an almost unfathomable $1.75 trillion . The merger with xAI brought together the billionaire's rockets, Starlink satellites, the X social media platform, and Grok AI chatbot under one roof, creating a tech and aerospace conglomerate like no other .

How Is SpaceX Structuring Its IPO Roadshow to Reach Different Investor Groups?

The three-day analyst briefing schedule reveals a carefully orchestrated approach to building investor confidence across multiple constituencies. The presentations are designed to reach different segments of Wall Street and institutional capital:

  • Tuesday at Starbase: An all-day meeting and analyst tour at SpaceX's satellite and rocket maker facilities in Boca Chica, Texas, targeting aerospace and technology analysts.
  • Wednesday at Starbase: A separate session for institutional investors, including major mutual funds and pension plans, to review the company's business strategy and operations.
  • Thursday in Memphis: Analysts invited to review SpaceX's "Macrohard" project at its Colossus data center in Tennessee, highlighting the AI infrastructure component of the merged entity.

Attendees are expected to surrender electronic devices to participate in the meetings, underscoring the confidential nature of the briefings . Some analysts have already received copies of SpaceX's confidential registration filing, though the document contained limited information .

About two weeks after the analyst days, SpaceX is expected to hold a separate "modeling" day for a select group of Wall Street analysts, some of whose banks are working on the deal . At such sessions, companies typically walk analysts through their financial projections, business thesis, and other key data that will help analysts calculate their earnings estimates before the listing.

What Makes SpaceX's Retail Investor Strategy Different From Traditional IPOs?

Musk is also planning to reward retail investors who have sent shares of electric vehicle company Tesla to valuations closer to a tech company than an automaker. He is planning to set aside approximately 30 percent of SpaceX shares for retail investors, hosting 1,500 of them to tour Starbase after the roadshow kicks off during the week of June 8 . Musk is also opening up initial share sales to international retail investors from the United Kingdom, European Union, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Korea .

The structure of the deal and precise amount of the retail allocation are expected to be finalized closer to the IPO launch. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs are leading the deal as active bookrunners, with 16 other banks in smaller roles spanning institutional, retail, and international channels .

The merger of SpaceX and xAI represents a significant moment in how technology companies are being valued and presented to public markets. By positioning itself as an AI infrastructure play rather than a traditional aerospace company, SpaceX is signaling that its future revenue and growth potential depend less on launching rockets and more on providing the computational backbone for artificial intelligence systems. Whether Wall Street's analysts accept this unconventional valuation framework will determine not just the success of the IPO, but how future technology conglomerates are evaluated in public markets.