The U.S. government agency responsible for approving exports of Nvidia and AMD AI accelerators is drowning in delays, with approval times doubling and staffing collapsing at a critical moment for the chip industry. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), a division of the Commerce Department, has shed 101 employees, a 19% reduction, since 2024, according to analysis of Office of Personnel Management figures and LinkedIn profile changes . Meanwhile, turnaround times for export licenses have stretched to 76 days in the first half of 2025, compared to an average of 38 days in 2023, leaving chipmakers waiting months for approvals that could unlock billions in sales .

What's Causing the Bottleneck at the Commerce Department?

The staffing crisis at BIS comes at the worst possible time. The Trump administration has spent the past year working to clear AI chip exports to key allies in the Middle East and select customers in China, but the very agency tasked with processing those licenses is overwhelmed and understaffed . Under Secretary of Commerce Jeffrey Kessler is now personally examining nearly every license application, a process that has become a significant bottleneck rather than a solution .

The workload has expanded dramatically beyond typical export reviews. The Trump administration's tariff probes and intensified scrutiny of AI chip exports have created a perfect storm of complexity. Additionally, since late February, top BIS officials have been diverted to focus on the Iran conflict, pulling energy away from the technology-export push that shaped the administration's first year . Turnover among rulemaking and licensing staff specifically has run at nearly 20%, meaning the agency has lost experienced personnel who understand the intricate details of chip export regulations .

How Are These Delays Affecting Nvidia and AMD?

The real-world impact is striking. Nvidia has not sold a single H200 accelerator to China months after the White House cleared the deal, despite having received orders from interested buyers . The culprit is not policy disagreement or regulatory rejection, but rather the sheer inability of BIS to process the paperwork in a timely manner. This represents a significant lost opportunity for the company, as Chinese customers have been waiting to purchase these chips under the approved framework.

Middle East licensing adds another layer of complexity. The export permissions that Cerebras and Nvidia received for shipments to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia came with dollar-for-dollar U.S. investment matching requirements, meaning each case must be individually negotiated rather than processed against a standardized template . For a licensing office that has lost a fifth of its staff and is handling a much more complex caseload, this requirement has become nearly impossible to manage efficiently.

AMD's MI308 approvals are also routing through the same bottlenecked system, meaning the company faces similar delays . The 25% import-duty framework for H200 shipments to "approved" Chinese customers, which was supposed to be a streamlined process, is now caught in the same bureaucratic gridlock .

Steps to Understanding the Export Licensing Crisis

• Staffing Collapse: The Bureau of Industry and Security has lost 101 employees since 2024, representing a 19% reduction in total workforce and nearly 20% turnover among rulemaking and licensing staff specifically.
• Processing Delays: Export license approval times have doubled from 38 days in 2023 to 76 days in the first half of 2025, creating months-long waits for chipmakers seeking to ship products to approved destinations.
• Competing Priorities: Since late February, top BIS officials have been focused on the Iran conflict, diverting resources and attention away from the technology-export initiatives that were central to the administration's first-year agenda.
• Complex Requirements: Middle East export licenses require individual negotiations and dollar-for-dollar U.S. investment matching, preventing the use of standardized processing templates that could speed up approvals.

The lack of transparency compounds the problem. Fiscal 2023 is the most recent year for which BIS has published a formal annual report, showing the agency processed nearly 38,000 applications a year with an 85% approval rate . However, reports for 2024 and 2025 have yet to be released, leaving chipmakers reliant on anecdotal turnaround data to estimate how long their own applications are likely to sit in the queue . This information vacuum makes it nearly impossible for companies to plan production schedules or commit to customer delivery dates.

The situation reveals a critical vulnerability in U.S. technology policy. While policymakers debate the strategic importance of controlling AI chip exports, the administrative machinery needed to execute those policies has deteriorated significantly. Nvidia, AMD, and other chipmakers are caught between geopolitical ambitions and bureaucratic reality, unable to capitalize on export approvals that took months to negotiate.

The Trump administration's planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, now scheduled for next month, is expected to address AI chip access and rare earth supplies . However, without addressing the staffing crisis at BIS, any new export agreements or frameworks will likely face the same processing delays that have already stalled billions in potential sales. The irony is stark: the government has cleared the exports, but the government cannot process them fast enough to make them meaningful.