Quantum computers have achieved something remarkable in recent years, but it's not what most people think it is. Several companies, including D-Wave, Quantinuum, Xanadu, and Google, have announced they've reached "quantum supremacy" or "quantum advantage," meaning their machines solved problems that would be impossible for classical computers. Yet experts are clear about one thing: solving a hard math equation is not the same as solving a business problem .

What Exactly Is Quantum Supremacy, and Why Does It Matter?

Quantum supremacy means achieving a task with a quantum computer that would be functionally impossible with a conventional computer. Each demonstration has been impressive on paper. Xanadu's team, for example, solved a math problem in two minutes that would have taken a classical computer seven million years . Google made a similar declaration in 2019, though IBM publicly disputed the claim. D-Wave announced a materials simulation achievement, and Quantinuum published research in Nature about generating certifiably random bits using a six-qubit cloud-based trapped-ion quantum computer .

"Each of the demonstrations of quantum supremacy was of a single thing, albeit a hard equation, that a quantum computer was able to do that could not be reproduced by a classical computer. While it's an interesting milestone, it's not the same as having a business-relevant or practical use case for a quantum computer," said Stefan Leichenauer, vice president of engineering at AI solutions company Sandbox.

Stefan Leichenauer, Vice President of Engineering at Sandbox

The reason these milestones matter is that they prove quantum computers are getting more powerful. But they're solving the wrong problems. The tech industry's massive investment in quantum computing isn't about winning math competitions; it's about solving real-world challenges that could transform industries .

Where Could Quantum Computing Actually Make a Difference?

The most promising near-term applications fall into a few categories. One major use case is simulating the physical world with high fidelity to help design new materials and medical treatments. High-temperature superconductors are a prime example. These materials must be kept extremely cold to work, making them difficult to develop. Quantum computers capable of simulating materials at that level of complexity could unlock the mechanics needed to create better superconductors .

Another area gaining traction is battery development for electric vehicles. Christian Weedbrook, CEO and founder of Xanadu Quantum Technologies, predicted that next-generation battery development will be the first relevant business case for quantum computing. Xanadu is already working with car manufacturers on batteries, with the goal of making a single charge last ten times longer and enabling electric vehicles to travel ten times farther than they currently can .

There's also growing interest in combining quantum computing with artificial intelligence (AI). Bob Coecke, chief scientist at Quantinuum, noted that his organization is fully amplifying AI in the short term. Some problems tackled with quantum computing require high precision while others do not, so combining AI and quantum technologies provides an edge. Coecke expects this space will be where early, real-world quantum advantages occur .

What's Stopping Quantum Computers From Solving Business Problems Today?

Two major obstacles stand between current quantum computers and the hardware needed for practical business use. The first is scale; the second is accuracy. To achieve quantum supremacy for a demonstration with business value, an organization will need a much bigger quantum computer than exists today, with significantly fewer errors, also called lower fidelity .

The more quantum bits, or qubits, a computer can handle, the more efficiently it runs and the fewer errors it produces. However, it's not currently possible to build a large-enough quantum computer with enough qubits to bring the error rate down to acceptable levels. Leichenauer explained the magnitude of the challenge this way:

"For a business use case, we need quantum computers with at least 1,000 times more qubits than current computers. This means we need to be able to manufacture the qubits of high-enough quality in a repeatable manner. The quality of the qubits is almost where it needs to be but maintaining that quality at a much larger scale is very challenging," explained Stefan Leichenauer.

Stefan Leichenauer, Vice President of Engineering at Sandbox

Weedbrook agreed that creating a physically large-enough quantum computer is one of the biggest current challenges. A quantum computer today takes up about half a room. To solve business problems, it will need to be as large as one to two acres of land. In fact, the next generation of use cases won't require just a computer; it will require a quantum datacenter .

How to Prepare for the Quantum Computing Era

• Monitor Progress in Quantum-AI Integration: Watch for developments in combining quantum computing with AI, as experts predict this intersection will produce the first real-world quantum advantages in business applications.
• Track Materials Science Breakthroughs: Pay attention to announcements about quantum simulations of materials, superconductors, and battery chemistry, as these are the most likely near-term applications.
• Understand the Timeline Realistically: Recognize that practical quantum computers for business problems are likely 10 to 20 years away, though a 1% chance exists they could arrive by 2030.

When Will Quantum Computers Actually Solve Business Problems?

The big question remains: when will quantum computing move from impressive demonstrations to solving real-world business challenges? Leichenauer said he would be surprised if a scaled quantum computer with the size and error rate needed for solving business challenges existed by 2030. He put better odds on 10 to 20 years from now. However, he acknowledged that even a 1% chance of it happening by 2030 is significant enough to consider such a short timeline a possibility .

The uncertainty stems from how rapidly the field is advancing. Bob Coecke noted that the pace of change and advancements make it challenging to give a firm prediction. "The progress is incredible. The hardware progress is incredible. It's beyond what was anticipated even by the scientists themselves," Coecke stated .

Bob Coecke

What's clear is that quantum supremacy as a milestone has been achieved multiple times over. What matters now is the next milestone: quantum advantage in solving problems that matter to businesses and society. Until quantum computers can tackle those challenges reliably and at scale, the real quantum revolution remains on the horizon.