The US-China competition for technological dominance is shifting from artificial intelligence chips to an even bigger prize: fusion energy, a virtually limitless carbon-free power source that could reshape global geopolitics. Both nations are racing to build domestic fusion capabilities while securing critical supply chains, turning to Europe's expertise in superconducting magnets, lasers, and reactor design. The stakes are enormous, with experts warning that whoever wins the fusion race could gain unprecedented economic and strategic advantage.

Why Is Fusion Energy Becoming a Geopolitical Battleground?

Fusion energy represents something far more consequential than the current AI chip competition. Unlike semiconductors, which can be manufactured in multiple locations, fusion technology requires mastery of complex physics, precision engineering, and control over critical materials. China has recognized this opportunity and is moving aggressively. Since the Lawrence Livermore National Ignition Facility first achieved fusion energy gain three years ago, China has spent between $6.5 billion and $13 billion on fusion infrastructure, according to experts tracking the competition.

This spending dwarfs Western investment and reflects a strategic shift in how Beijing approaches emerging technologies. Rather than trying to match the US in pure scientific breakthroughs, China is focusing on what it does best: subsidizing development, scaling manufacturing, and controlling supply chains. Ylli Bajraktari, president and chief executive of the Special Competitive Studies Project, a non-partisan US think tank, explained the pattern clearly.

"China didn't make the scientific breakthroughs that brought the first electric vehicles, solar panels or 5G towers to market. They focused on subsidies and scaling manufacturing, and it paid off. China isn't building solar panels because they want to reach net zero. They're selling solar panels at a loss to get the world in their debt," said Ylli Bajraktari.

Ylli Bajraktari, President and Chief Executive of the Special Competitive Studies Project

Bajraktari warned that the same strategy will unfold in fusion unless the West moves decisively. "The time is over for treating fusion energy like a science project. It's no longer a curiosity. We need to take it as seriously as China does. It's a matter of national infrastructure that we just need to build," he stated.

Bajraktari

What Are China's Major Fusion Projects?

China is pursuing a diversified portfolio of fusion technologies across multiple research campuses and facilities. These projects span different approaches to achieving fusion, from magnetic confinement to inertial confinement, ensuring that if one pathway encounters obstacles, others can advance.

• CRAFT and BEST in Hefei: A large integrated research campus housing the Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CRAFT) and Burning Plasma Experimental Superconducting Tokamak (BEST), designed to move from component testing to demonstrating net fusion power and electricity generation this decade.
• Xinghuo in Nanchang: A fission-fusion hybrid reactor targeting approximately 100 megawatts of output in the early 2030s, combining two nuclear approaches for greater flexibility.
• Shengguang-IV in Mianyang: A large-scale laser fusion facility estimated to be significantly bigger than the US National Ignition Facility, advancing inertial confinement fusion technology.
• EAST in Hefei: A long-running experimental tokamak that continues to set global records, including sustaining plasma at 100 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds in January, anchoring China's fusion research program.

Beyond these flagship projects, China is investing heavily across the entire supply chain. The country is scaling production of high-temperature superconductors needed for fusion magnets, tightening control over critical materials such as gallium and germanium, securing access to copper and other resources through overseas investments, and building capabilities in precision manufacturing and advanced components.

How Can the West Compete in the Fusion Race?

Western experts argue that the US and Europe cannot out-compete China through sheer spending or speed alone. Instead, they must leverage their distinct technological strengths and collaborate strategically. Different nations have developed expertise in different aspects of fusion technology, and pooling these capabilities could create a competitive advantage.

• United Kingdom Leadership: The UK excels in magnetic confinement fusion technology and radiation-resistant robotics, critical for building and maintaining fusion reactors.
• US Advantages: America leads in inertial confinement fusion, controls beryllium supply chains, and has a robust venture-backed innovation ecosystem that can accelerate development.
• German Expertise: Germany has developed world-class laser technologies essential for multiple fusion approaches.
• Japanese Capabilities: Japan produces high-quality superconductors that are fundamental to magnetic confinement systems.

Laban Coblentz, chief strategic advisor to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world's largest collaborative fusion project, advocates for international partnerships rather than competitive isolation. He noted that when examining why China built its Hualong-1 fission reactor in five years for $5 billion while the US and Europe built theirs over budget, the answer was revealing: 140 French companies were embedded in China's supply chain.

"I hope that when Trump and Xi meet next month, some of the barriers start to come down, and we start to look at how things could be complementary instead of competitive," said Laban Coblentz.

Laban Coblentz, Chief Strategic Advisor to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

What Role Does Europe Play in This Competition?

Europe finds itself in a pivotal position. The continent possesses critical expertise in superconducting magnets, lasers, robotics, and tokamak design that both the US and China need. The ITER project, headquartered in southern France, represents the world's most ambitious international fusion collaboration, with construction beginning in 2013.

However, ITER itself illustrates the challenges facing Western fusion efforts. The project's budget has ballooned dramatically. Originally budgeted at 6 billion euros (approximately $6.8 billion) in 2013, costs rose to about 22 billion euros by 2021, with the US Department of Energy estimating total costs could reach $65 billion by 2039 when full fusion operations are targeted. The European Union is funding approximately 45.6% of the project, while China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and the US each contribute roughly 9.1%.

Some US fusion experts worry that Europe's participation in ITER, while scientifically valuable, may inadvertently benefit China. The project brings together scientists and engineers from multiple nations, including China, creating opportunities for knowledge transfer. Yet others argue that fusion's complexity requires exactly this kind of broad international collaboration to succeed.

How Does Fusion Competition Connect to the Broader US-China Tech Race?

The fusion rivalry reflects a fundamental shift in how the US and China view technological competition. The chip war, characterized by export controls and supply chain restrictions, has proven only partially effective at slowing China's progress. Meanwhile, China's investment in domestic alternatives, including advanced AI chips compatible with US systems, continues to accelerate.

Fusion energy represents the next frontier where similar dynamics will likely play out. Export controls on advanced equipment and materials may slow China's progress temporarily, but they also incentivize Beijing to develop domestic alternatives and secure critical resources through international partnerships and investments. The semiconductor industry's experience suggests that attempting to contain China through restrictions alone is insufficient; the West must also innovate faster and build stronger alliances.

The stakes extend beyond energy production. Whoever masters fusion technology will gain enormous soft power, as nations worldwide will depend on that technology for clean, abundant electricity. This dependence could reshape geopolitical alignments, trade relationships, and strategic influence for decades to come.